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US Equities · Finance research note

PAYX — Paychex

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 44.38%
Profit Margins 26.63%
Dividend Yield 4.77%
Short Int % Utilisation 6.25%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 19.9%
EBITDA 24.54 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 39.46B
EV/Revenue 9.94
EV/EBITDA 24.54

Revenue growth of 19.9% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -4.30%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.91%
1-Year Price Return* -7.85%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $122.02
52-Week Range $85.45 – $141.19
Observation Count 250 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $6.51B $5.57B
Net income Reported net income $1.76B $1.66B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $16.17B $16.56B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.74B $4.13B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 27.03% 29.74%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4026x 0.3364x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 4.3304x 4.0126x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 47.12% 40.15%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $6.51B
Prior annual revenue $5.57B
EBIT $2.58B
Tax rate 23.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.97B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.97B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $442.60M
Less: capital expenditure -$234.90M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$124.10M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.05B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $2.26B $508.99M -$270.13M -$142.71M $2.36B $2.25B
2 11.88% $2.53B $569.43M -$369.02M -$159.66M $2.57B $2.24B
3 8.75% $2.75B $619.26M -$473.96M -$173.63M $2.72B $2.16B
4 5.62% $2.91B $654.09M -$577.35M -$183.40M $2.80B $2.03B
5 2.50% $2.98B $670.44M -$670.44M -$187.98M $2.79B $1.84B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.00
Cost of equity 10.21%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.60%
WACC 9.64%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $40.07B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.75x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 70.61%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $10.53B
Present value of terminal value $25.29B
Indicated enterprise value $35.82B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $35.82B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $4.61B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.12B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $32.34B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 360,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $121.30
DCF indicative value per share $89.82
Indicative value vs. market price -25.95%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:45:05.126635 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-05-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -33.26% -27.36%
Adjusted R² 0.04 0.05
Annualised residual volatility 25.58% 25.22%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.04 (0.26) 0.23 (1.35)
Size (SMB) 0.60 (2.97) 0.55 (2.53)
Value (HML) -0.06 (-0.35) -0.33 (-1.55)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.25 (1.36)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.53 (1.70)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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