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US Equities · Finance research note

PCAR — Paccar

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 10.32%
Profit Margins 8.91%
Return on Equity 13.11%
Return on Assets 4.15%
Free Float 0.52B
Dividend Yield 1.16%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.11%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -8.9%
Free Cash Flow 1.49B
EBITDA 20.62 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 66.44B
EV/Revenue 2.39
EV/EBITDA 20.62

Revenue growth of -8.9% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 42.09%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.75%
1-Year Price Return* 36.44%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $130.79
52-Week Range $92.25 – $139.24
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $28.44B $33.66B
Net income Reported net income $2.38B $4.16B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $44.34B $43.42B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $19.26B $17.51B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 8.35% 12.36%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6416x 0.7753x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3015x 2.4801x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 12.33% 23.77%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $28.44B
Prior annual revenue $33.66B
EBIT $2.96B
Tax rate 21.40%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.33B
Forecast start-growth basis -10.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.33B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $827.40M
Less: capital expenditure -$1.39B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $718.80M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.49B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -10.00% $2.10B $744.66M -$1.25B $646.92M $2.24B $2.14B
2 -6.88% $1.95B $693.46M -$1.04B $602.44M $2.20B $1.93B
3 -3.75% $1.88B $667.46M -$893.01M $579.85M $2.23B $1.78B
4 -0.63% $1.87B $663.29M -$775.36M $576.23M $2.33B $1.70B
5 2.50% $1.91B $679.87M -$679.87M $590.63M $2.50B $1.67B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.98
Cost of equity 10.13%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 9.37%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $37.37B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 12.00x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 72.13%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $9.23B
Present value of terminal value $23.88B
Indicated enterprise value $33.11B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $33.11B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $15.64B
Add: cash and equivalents $9.52B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $26.99B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 526,800,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $128.71
DCF indicative value per share $51.23
Indicative value vs. market price -60.20%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:45:09.625947 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -13.48% -8.42%
Adjusted R² 0.42 0.44
Annualised residual volatility 20.91% 20.52%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.21 (9.81) 1.35 (9.68)
Size (SMB) 0.49 (2.94) 0.37 (2.11)
Value (HML) 0.90 (6.29) 0.61 (3.54)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.08 (0.55)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.66 (2.60)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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