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US Equities · Finance research note

PEG — Public Service Enterprise Group

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 28.43%
Profit Margins 17.69%
Return on Equity 13.44%
Return on Assets 3.66%
Free Float 0.5B
Dividend Yield 3.21%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.35%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 19.4%
Free Cash Flow -0.17B
EBITDA 13.17 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 63.16B
EV/Revenue 4.94
EV/EBITDA 13.17

Revenue growth of 19.4% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -6.40%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 18.52%
1-Year Price Return* -7.93%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $76.04
52-Week Range $74.20 – $87.63
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $12.17B $10.29B
Net income Reported net income $2.11B $1.77B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $57.58B $54.64B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $16.98B $16.11B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 17.35% 17.22%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.2113x 0.1883x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.3904x 3.3908x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 12.43% 11.00%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $12.17B
Prior annual revenue $10.29B
EBIT $3.33B
Tax rate 11.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.96B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.96B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.46B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.27B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $193.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.34B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $3.41B $1.68B -$3.76B $221.95M $1.55B $1.50B
2 11.88% $3.81B $1.88B -$3.63B $248.31M $2.31B $2.12B
3 8.75% $4.15B $2.04B -$3.31B $270.03M $3.15B $2.72B
4 5.62% $4.38B $2.16B -$2.83B $285.22M $4.00B $3.25B
5 2.50% $4.49B $2.21B -$2.21B $292.35M $4.78B $3.67B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.53
Cost of equity 7.61%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.08%
WACC 6.06%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $137.70B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 18.96x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 88.55%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $13.26B
Present value of terminal value $102.60B
Indicated enterprise value $115.86B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $115.86B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $24.20B
Add: cash and equivalents $132.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $91.79B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 501,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $76.15
DCF indicative value per share $183.22
Indicative value vs. market price 140.61%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:45:18.540766 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -12.94% -11.61%
Adjusted R² 0.05 0.04
Annualised residual volatility 18.35% 18.31%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.25 (2.29) 0.27 (2.20)
Size (SMB) 0.08 (0.56) 0.13 (0.83)
Value (HML) 0.35 (2.81) 0.38 (2.48)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.11 (0.81)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.13 (-0.59)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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