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US Equities · Finance research note

PHM — PulteGroup

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 13.13%
Profit Margins 12.14%
Return on Equity 16.18%
Return on Assets 9.96%
Free Float 0.19B
Dividend Yield 0.76%
Short Int % Utilisation 6.0%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -12.4%
Free Cash Flow 1.48B
EBITDA 7.89 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 23.22B
EV/Revenue 1.38
EV/EBITDA 7.89

Revenue growth of -12.4% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 7.71%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 33.20%
1-Year Price Return* 1.96%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $130.18
52-Week Range $108.49 – $144.50
Observation Count 249 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $17.31B $17.95B
Net income Reported net income $2.22B $3.08B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $18.05B $17.36B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $12.99B $12.12B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 12.82% 17.18%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.9592x 1.0336x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.3899x 1.4324x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 17.09% 25.44%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.31B
Prior annual revenue $17.95B
EBIT $2.91B
Tax rate 23.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.22B
Forecast start-growth basis -3.54%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.22B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $112.51M
Less: capital expenditure -$122.72M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$731.07M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.48B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -3.54% $2.14B $108.53M -$118.37M -$705.21M $1.43B $1.36B
2 -2.03% $2.10B $106.32M -$113.56M -$690.90M $1.40B $1.21B
3 -0.52% $2.09B $105.77M -$110.57M -$687.31M $1.39B $1.09B
4 0.99% $2.11B $106.82M -$109.24M -$694.12M $1.41B $998.62M
5 2.50% $2.16B $109.49M -$109.49M -$711.47M $1.45B $929.07M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.21
Cost of equity 11.34%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.03%
WACC 10.36%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $18.88B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.41x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.38%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $5.58B
Present value of terminal value $11.53B
Indicated enterprise value $17.11B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $17.11B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.30B
Add: cash and equivalents $2.59B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $17.41B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 199,537,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $126.94
DCF indicative value per share $87.24
Indicative value vs. market price -31.28%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:45:46.099940 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -23.93% -2.77%
Adjusted R² 0.36 0.48
Annualised residual volatility 26.25% 23.55%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.94 (6.09) 1.48 (9.28)
Size (SMB) 1.27 (6.09) 1.18 (5.85)
Value (HML) 0.64 (3.55) -0.04 (-0.19)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.79 (4.69)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.25 (4.26)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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