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US Equities · Finance research note

PM — Philip Morris International

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 36.04%
Profit Margins 26.74%
Return on Assets 15.46%
Free Float 1.55B
Dividend Yield 3.25%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.04%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 9.1%
Free Cash Flow 8.58B
EBITDA 17.94 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 333.63B
EV/Revenue 8.04
EV/EBITDA 17.94

Revenue growth of 9.1% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 23.61%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 28.03%
1-Year Price Return* 18.71%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $190.39
52-Week Range $142.11 – $207.76
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $40.65B $37.88B
Net income Reported net income $11.32B $7.03B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $69.19B $61.78B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $-9.99B $-11.75B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 27.84% 18.57%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5875x 0.6131x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -6.9227x -5.2582x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -113.23% -59.86%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $40.65B
Prior annual revenue $37.88B
EBIT $15.47B
Tax rate 19.70%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $12.42B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.31%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $12.42B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.00B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.57B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.81B
Current unlevered FCFF $11.04B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.31% $13.33B $2.14B -$1.68B -$1.94B $11.85B $11.49B
2 6.11% $14.14B $2.27B -$1.91B -$2.06B $12.45B $11.36B
3 4.91% $14.84B $2.38B -$2.13B -$2.16B $12.93B $11.10B
4 3.70% $15.39B $2.47B -$2.34B -$2.24B $13.28B $10.72B
5 2.50% $15.77B $2.53B -$2.53B -$2.30B $13.47B $10.23B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.40
Cost of equity 6.91%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.36%
WACC 6.31%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $362.56B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 16.35x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.95%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $54.89B
Present value of terminal value $267.00B
Indicated enterprise value $321.90B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $321.90B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $48.84B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.87B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.97B
Indicated common equity value $275.97B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,558,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $187.92
DCF indicative value per share $177.13
Indicative value vs. market price -5.74%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:46:02.776085 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 9.95% 29.06%
Adjusted R² 0.00 0.06
Annualised residual volatility 27.53% 26.55%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.05 (-0.30) 0.30 (1.66)
Size (SMB) -0.05 (-0.23) -0.07 (-0.30)
Value (HML) 0.27 (1.46) -0.11 (-0.51)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.56 (2.94)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.66 (2.00)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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