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US Equities · Finance research note

PODD — Insulet Corporation

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 16.03%
Profit Margins 10.44%
Return on Equity 23.0%
Return on Assets 9.74%
Free Float 0.07B
Short Int % Utilisation 6.9%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 33.9%
Free Cash Flow 0.25B
EBITDA 18.23 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 10.97B
EV/Revenue 3.78
EV/EBITDA 18.23

Revenue growth of 33.9% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -50.96%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 43.96%
1-Year Price Return* -55.38%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $143.34
52-Week Range $126.40 – $354.88
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $2.71B $2.07B
Net income Reported net income $247.10M $418.30M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $3.19B $3.09B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $1.52B $1.21B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 9.12% 20.19%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.8488x 0.6709x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.1055x 2.5484x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 16.31% 34.52%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $2.71B
Prior annual revenue $2.07B
EBIT $398.90M
Tax rate 27.22%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $290.33M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $290.33M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $90.40M
Less: capital expenditure -$219.40M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$23.10M
Current unlevered FCFF $138.23M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $333.88M $103.96M -$252.31M -$26.56M $158.97M $151.48M
2 11.88% $373.53M $116.31M -$240.78M -$29.72M $219.34M $189.77M
3 8.75% $406.22M $126.48M -$216.73M -$32.32M $283.65M $222.83M
4 5.62% $429.07M $133.60M -$181.26M -$34.14M $347.27M $247.70M
5 2.50% $439.79M $136.94M -$136.94M -$34.99M $404.80M $262.17M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.09
Cost of equity 10.73%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.10%
WACC 10.13%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $5.43B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.33x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.75%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.07B
Present value of terminal value $3.35B
Indicated enterprise value $4.43B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $4.43B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $949.20M
Add: cash and equivalents $716.10M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $4.19B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 71,886,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $146.50
DCF indicative value per share $58.35
Indicative value vs. market price -60.17%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:46:18.551185 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -56.74% -50.33%
Adjusted R² 0.05 0.07
Annualised residual volatility 38.36% 37.87%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.05 (0.22) 0.33 (1.29)
Size (SMB) 1.03 (3.37) 1.11 (3.42)
Value (HML) -0.49 (-1.85) -0.68 (-2.13)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.59 (2.16)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.17 (0.36)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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