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QCOM — Qualcomm

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 22.06%
Profit Margins 22.31%
Return on Equity 36.08%
Return on Assets 12.69%
Free Float 1.05B
Dividend Yield 1.80%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.78%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -3.5%
Free Cash Flow 9.59B
EBITDA 15.92 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 207.0B
EV/Revenue 4.65
EV/EBITDA 15.92

Revenue growth of -3.5% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 22.86%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 52.38%
1-Year Price Return* 7.24%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $165.79
52-Week Range $121.99 – $259.92
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $44.28B $38.96B
Net income Reported net income $5.54B $10.14B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $50.14B $55.15B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $21.21B $26.27B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 12.51% 26.03%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.8832x 0.7064x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3646x 2.0992x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 26.13% 38.60%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $44.28B
Prior annual revenue $38.96B
EBIT $13.33B
Tax rate 21.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $10.53B
Forecast start-growth basis 13.66%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $10.53B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.60B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.19B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $414.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $11.35B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 13.66% $11.97B $1.82B -$1.35B $470.55M $12.90B $12.14B
2 10.87% $13.27B $2.02B -$1.63B $521.70M $14.18B $11.80B
3 8.08% $14.34B $2.18B -$1.90B $563.85M $15.18B $11.18B
4 5.29% $15.10B $2.30B -$2.15B $593.68M $15.84B $10.32B
5 2.50% $15.48B $2.35B -$2.35B $608.52M $16.08B $9.27B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.66
Cost of equity 13.86%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.51%
WACC 13.02%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $156.70B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.14x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 60.83%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $54.71B
Present value of terminal value $84.97B
Indicated enterprise value $139.68B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $139.68B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $14.81B
Add: cash and equivalents $10.15B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $135.02B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,105,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $159.20
DCF indicative value per share $122.19
Indicative value vs. market price -23.25%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:47:08.641722 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -16.76% -34.29%
Adjusted R² 0.27 0.36
Annualised residual volatility 45.16% 42.14%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 2.37 (8.93) 1.96 (6.88)
Size (SMB) -0.64 (-1.78) -1.30 (-3.60)
Value (HML) 0.88 (2.85) 0.52 (1.47)
Profitability (RMW) NM -1.55 (-5.14)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.72 (3.28)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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