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ROL — Rollins, Inc.

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Evidence and analysis

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1. Industry Fundamentals

1.1 Cyclicality

The company operates in a cyclical industry sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Revenue and earnings tend to correlate with broader economic cycles, with periods of expansion driving growth and contractions creating headwinds. The latest verified market price is shown in the return section below.0B.

1.2 Competition

The industry is moderately competitive with established players and meaningful barriers to entry. Beta of 0.73 suggests moderate market sensitivity. Competitive advantages stem from brand, scale, or regulatory moats.

1.3 Technology

Key technology drivers include digital transformation, operational efficiency, automation. Companies that invest in R&D and adopt new technologies tend to gain market share. The pace of technological change creates both opportunities for innovation and risks of disruption.


2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

MetricValue
Operating Margins16.05%
Profit Margins13.77%
Return on Equity38.67%
Return on Assets14.98%
Free Float0.31B
Dividend Yield1.69%
Short Int % Utilisation3.43%

2.2 Growth

MetricValue
Revenue Growth10.2%
Free Cash Flow0.52B
EBITDA27.84 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value23.95B
EV/Revenue6.23
EV/EBITDA27.84

Revenue growth of 10.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

RoleMetric
Consensus RatingN/A

2.4 Return

MetricValue
Expected Return (Ann.)*-33.77%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)*26.93%
1-Year Price Return*-35.94%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

MetricValue
Last Price$36.20
52-Week Range$35.98 – $66.14
Observation Count251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont componentCalculationFY2025FY2024
RevenueReported revenue$3.76B$3.39B
Net incomeReported net income$526.71M$466.38M
Total assetsYear-end reported balance$3.14B$2.82B
Shareholders’ equityYear-end reported balance$1.37B$1.33B
Net marginNet income ÷ revenue14.00%13.76%
Asset turnoverRevenue ÷ total assets1.1976x1.2018x
Equity multiplierTotal assets ÷ shareholders’ equity2.2851x2.1191x
ROENet margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier38.32%35.05%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating inputValue
Revenue$3.76B
Prior annual revenue$3.39B
EBIT$729.48M
Tax rate24.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate)$547.84M
Forecast start-growth basis10.99%
Forecast policylatest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building blockValue
NOPAT$547.84M
Add: depreciation & amortisation$124.74M
Less: capital expenditure-$28.09M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement-$65.00M
Current unlevered FCFF$579.50M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast yearRevenue growthNOPATD&ACapexChange in NWCFCFFPresent value
110.99%$608.04M$138.45M-$31.17M-$72.15M$643.17M$617.63M
28.87%$661.95M$150.73M-$63.13M-$78.54M$670.99M$594.20M
36.74%$706.59M$160.89M-$98.56M-$83.84M$685.08M$559.45M
44.62%$739.24M$168.33M-$135.72M-$87.71M$684.14M$515.19M
52.50%$757.73M$172.53M-$172.53M-$89.91M$667.82M$463.75M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC inputValue
Risk-free rate4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption5.50%
Beta0.74
Cost of equity8.80%
Pre-tax cost of debt3.09%
WACC8.44%
WACC validationwithin standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value inputValue
Perpetuity growth rate2.50%
Terminal value$11.52B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA9.75x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value73.64%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value componentValue
Present value of explicit FCFF$2.75B
Present value of terminal value$7.68B
Indicated enterprise value$10.43B
Discounting conventionmid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridgeValue
Indicated enterprise value$10.43B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt$1.04B
Add: cash and equivalents$100.00M
Add: affiliate investments$0.00
Less: minority interests$0.00
Indicated common equity value$9.50B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share outputValue
Shares used484,147,000.00
Share-count basisreported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price$36.38
DCF indicative value per share$19.61
Indicative value vs. market price-46.10%

Model Integrity Checks

CheckResult
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free ratepass
Perpetuity growth is below WACCpass
WACC is within the configured operating-company rangepass
Terminal-year FCFF is positivepass
Terminal capex converges to D&Apass
Terminal-value concentrationwithin review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30%review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screenResult
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:47:47.736844 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation inputValue
Regional factor setUS
Factor-return currencyUSD
Issuer-return basisUSD adjusted total return
Estimation window2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations217
Minimum observation requirement120
Currency conversion for HK listingsnot required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

DiagnosticFF3FF5
Annualised alpha-37.72%-27.38%
Adjusted R²0.030.09
Annualised residual volatility24.91%23.99%
Factor loading (t-statistic)FF3FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF)0.18 (1.23)0.50 (3.09)
Size (SMB)0.32 (1.62)0.37 (1.81)
Value (HML)0.31 (1.80)0.03 (0.14)
Profitability (RMW)NM0.61 (3.54)
Investment (CMA)NM0.36 (1.20)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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