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US Equities · Finance research note

ROST — Ross Stores

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 13.38%
Profit Margins 9.74%
Return on Equity 38.98%
Return on Assets 12.16%
Free Float 0.31B
Dividend Yield 0.83%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.05%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 20.6%
Free Cash Flow 2.05B
EBITDA 21.86 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 74.99B
EV/Revenue 3.15
EV/EBITDA 21.86

Revenue growth of 20.6% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 75.47%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 25.61%
1-Year Price Return* 68.49%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $245.36
52-Week Range $143.39 – $257.00
Observation Count 249 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $22.75B $21.13B
Net income Reported net income $2.15B $2.09B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $15.55B $14.91B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $6.19B $5.51B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 9.43% 9.89%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.4632x 1.4176x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.5130x 2.7055x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 34.67% 37.95%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $22.75B
Prior annual revenue $21.13B
EBIT $2.88B
Tax rate 24.50%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.17B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.67%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.17B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $509.39M
Less: capital expenditure -$819.27M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $122.71M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.99B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.67% $2.34B $548.48M -$882.14M $132.12M $2.14B $2.05B
2 6.38% $2.49B $583.47M -$849.69M $140.55M $2.37B $2.08B
3 5.09% $2.62B $613.15M -$799.65M $147.70M $2.58B $2.08B
4 3.79% $2.72B $636.41M -$733.20M $153.30M $2.77B $2.05B
5 2.50% $2.78B $652.32M -$652.32M $157.14M $2.94B $2.00B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.88
Cost of equity 9.54%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.70%
WACC 8.96%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $46.68B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.75x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 74.76%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $10.26B
Present value of terminal value $30.40B
Indicated enterprise value $40.66B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $40.66B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.21B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.59B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $40.04B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 324,416,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $237.91
DCF indicative value per share $123.42
Indicative value vs. market price -48.12%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:47:55.561424 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-01-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 23.72% 31.63%
Adjusted R² 0.15 0.17
Annualised residual volatility 23.95% 23.66%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.78 (5.56) 0.93 (5.80)
Size (SMB) 0.17 (0.89) 0.08 (0.41)
Value (HML) 0.49 (2.97) 0.23 (1.14)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.13 (0.78)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.57 (1.93)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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