US Equities Analysis

SBUX — Starbucks

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 8.42%
Profit Margins 3.89%
Return on Assets 7.38%
Free Float 1.14B
Dividend Yield 2.40%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.7%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 8.8%
Free Cash Flow -1.3B
EBITDA 25.07 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 135.27B
EV/Revenue 3.52
EV/EBITDA 25.07

Revenue growth of 8.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 26.87%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.86%
1-Year Price Return* 21.90%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $107.69
52-Week Range $77.99 – $110.51
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $37.18B
Prior annual revenue $36.18B
EBIT $3.05B
Tax rate 25.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.26B
Forecast start-growth basis 2.79%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.26B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.77B
Less: capital expenditure -$2.31B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.49B
Current unlevered FCFF $231.58M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 2.79% $2.32B $1.82B -$2.37B -$1.54B $238.03M $228.51M
2 2.72% $2.39B $1.87B -$2.29B -$1.58B $385.44M $341.01M
3 2.64% $2.45B $1.92B -$2.21B -$1.62B $540.30M $440.55M
4 2.57% $2.51B $1.97B -$2.12B -$1.66B $702.59M $527.96M
5 2.50% $2.57B $2.02B -$2.02B -$1.70B $872.26M $604.07M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.97
Cost of equity 10.02%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.07%
WACC 8.51%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $14.88B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 2.71x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.20%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.14B
Present value of terminal value $9.90B
Indicated enterprise value $12.04B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $12.04B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $26.61B
Add: cash and equivalents $3.47B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $7.40M
Indicated common equity value -$11.11B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,139,800,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $107.21
DCF indicative value per share -$9.75
Indicative value vs. market price -109.10%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:48:19.615189 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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