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US Equities · Finance research note

SHW — Sherwin-Williams

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 14.16%
Profit Margins 10.86%
Return on Equity 60.72%
Return on Assets 9.45%
Free Float 0.23B
Dividend Yield 0.94%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.59%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 6.8%
Free Cash Flow 2.14B
EBITDA 19.51 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 88.91B
EV/Revenue 3.71
EV/EBITDA 19.51

Revenue growth of 6.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 3.03%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.54%
1-Year Price Return* -0.75%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $359.10
52-Week Range $289.86 – $379.65
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $23.57B $23.10B
Net income Reported net income $2.57B $2.68B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $25.90B $23.63B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $4.60B $4.05B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 10.90% 11.61%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.9101x 0.9774x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 5.6329x 5.8335x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 55.86% 66.19%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $23.57B
Prior annual revenue $23.10B
EBIT $3.80B
Tax rate 23.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.92B
Forecast start-growth basis 2.06%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.92B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $676.90M
Less: capital expenditure -$797.60M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$636.30M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.17B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 2.06% $2.98B $690.84M -$814.03M -$649.41M $2.21B $2.11B
2 2.17% $3.05B $705.83M -$800.23M -$663.50M $2.29B $2.00B
3 2.28% $3.12B $721.93M -$786.29M -$678.63M $2.38B $1.89B
4 2.39% $3.19B $739.18M -$772.13M -$694.84M $2.47B $1.78B
5 2.50% $3.27B $757.66M -$757.66M -$712.22M $2.56B $1.69B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.09
Cost of equity 10.72%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.74%
WACC 9.68%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $36.55B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.29x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 70.86%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $9.47B
Present value of terminal value $23.03B
Indicated enterprise value $32.49B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $32.49B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $12.94B
Add: cash and equivalents $207.20M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $19.76B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 250,400,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $348.58
DCF indicative value per share $78.91
Indicative value vs. market price -77.36%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:48:28.623464 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -24.41% -6.89%
Adjusted R² 0.23 0.36
Annualised residual volatility 22.43% 20.31%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.73 (5.49) 1.18 (8.56)
Size (SMB) 0.66 (3.70) 0.63 (3.61)
Value (HML) 0.33 (2.17) -0.18 (-1.05)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.72 (4.94)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.88 (3.50)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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