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US Equities · Finance research note

SJM — J.M. Smucker Company (The)

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 20.03%
Profit Margins -1.53%
Return on Equity -2.39%
Return on Assets 5.21%
Free Float 0.1B
Dividend Yield 3.80%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.54%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 5.8%
Free Cash Flow 1.06B
EBITDA 9.86 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 19.39B
EV/Revenue 2.14
EV/EBITDA 9.86

Revenue growth of 5.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 18.15%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 29.09%
1-Year Price Return* 13.05%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $121.39
52-Week Range $88.25 – $127.65
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $9.05B $8.73B
Net income Reported net income $-138.70M $-1.23B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $16.22B $17.56B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $5.54B $6.08B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue -1.53% -14.10%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5580x 0.4968x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.9257x 2.8875x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -2.50% -20.23%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $9.05B
Prior annual revenue $8.73B
EBIT $318.80M
Tax rate 40.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $191.28M
Forecast start-growth basis 3.72%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $191.28M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $557.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$317.40M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $89.60M
Current unlevered FCFF $520.48M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 3.72% $198.40M $577.73M -$329.21M $92.94M $539.85M $526.80M
2 3.42% $205.18M $597.47M -$404.71M $96.11M $494.05M $459.08M
3 3.11% $211.56M $616.06M -$483.56M $99.10M $443.16M $392.13M
4 2.81% $217.50M $633.34M -$565.23M $101.88M $387.49M $326.49M
5 2.50% $222.93M $649.18M -$649.18M $104.43M $327.36M $262.66M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.25
Cost of equity 6.09%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.13%
WACC 5.02%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $13.34B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 13.07x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 84.15%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.97B
Present value of terminal value $10.44B
Indicated enterprise value $12.41B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $12.41B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $7.09B
Add: cash and equivalents $58.60M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $5.38B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 106,880,690.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price $119.81
DCF indicative value per share $50.34
Indicative value vs. market price -57.99%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:48:32.143140 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-04-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 2.54% 19.02%
Adjusted R² 0.04 0.11
Annualised residual volatility 28.01% 26.84%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.29 (-1.76) 0.05 (0.29)
Size (SMB) 0.55 (2.48) 0.41 (1.77)
Value (HML) 0.10 (0.55) -0.43 (-1.88)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.39 (2.00)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.11 (3.33)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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