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US Equities · Finance research note

SWK — Stanley Black & Decker

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.44%
Profit Margins 2.44%
Return on Equity 4.17%
Return on Assets 3.33%
Free Float 0.15B
Dividend Yield 3.61%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.76%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 2.7%
Free Cash Flow 0.84B
EBITDA 11.17 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 18.68B
EV/Revenue 1.23
EV/EBITDA 11.17

Revenue growth of 2.7% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 55.41%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 38.32%
1-Year Price Return* 44.10%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $102.07
52-Week Range $61.90 – $104.68
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $15.13B $15.37B
Net income Reported net income $401.90M $294.30M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $21.24B $21.85B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $9.05B $8.72B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 2.66% 1.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.7122x 0.7033x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3462x 2.5056x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 4.44% 3.38%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $15.13B
Prior annual revenue $15.37B
EBIT $934.20M
Tax rate 3.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $898.70M
Forecast start-growth basis -1.53%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $898.70M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $512.40M
Less: capital expenditure -$283.30M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$248.30M
Current unlevered FCFF $879.50M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -1.53% $884.94M $504.55M -$278.96M -$244.50M $866.03M $824.65M
2 -0.52% $880.31M $501.91M -$333.60M -$243.22M $805.40M $695.37M
3 0.48% $884.57M $504.34M -$391.59M -$244.40M $752.92M $589.42M
4 1.49% $897.77M $511.87M -$454.65M -$248.04M $706.94M $501.80M
5 2.50% $920.21M $524.67M -$524.67M -$254.24M $665.97M $428.62M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.17
Cost of equity 11.16%
Pre-tax cost of debt 8.45%
WACC 10.29%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $8.76B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 5.92x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 63.86%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.04B
Present value of terminal value $5.37B
Indicated enterprise value $8.41B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $8.41B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $6.00B
Add: cash and equivalents $280.10M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $2.69B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 151,878,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $98.78
DCF indicative value per share $17.74
Indicative value vs. market price -82.04%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:49:42.760508 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -15.71% 2.63%
Adjusted R² 0.49 0.58
Annualised residual volatility 27.54% 24.72%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.62 (10.00) 2.09 (12.46)
Size (SMB) 1.28 (5.84) 0.98 (4.63)
Value (HML) 0.88 (4.67) 0.03 (0.17)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.40 (2.24)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.88 (6.11)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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