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TGT — Target Corporation

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 4.52%
Profit Margins 3.24%
Return on Equity 22.02%
Return on Assets 5.68%
Free Float 0.45B
Dividend Yield 3.32%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.45%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 6.7%
Free Cash Flow 3.14B
EBITDA 8.85 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 73.87B
EV/Revenue 0.69
EV/EBITDA 8.85

Revenue growth of 6.7% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 64.79%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 30.89%
1-Year Price Return* 56.02%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $154.48
52-Week Range $83.44 – $156.47
Observation Count 249 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $104.78B $106.57B
Net income Reported net income $3.71B $4.09B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $59.49B $57.77B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $16.16B $14.67B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 3.54% 3.84%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.7613x 1.8447x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.6802x 3.9390x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 22.92% 27.89%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $104.78B
Prior annual revenue $106.57B
EBIT $5.21B
Tax rate 22.28%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $4.05B
Forecast start-growth basis -1.68%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $4.05B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $3.13B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.73B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$403.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $3.05B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -1.68% $3.98B $3.08B -$3.66B -$396.25M $3.00B $2.89B
2 -0.63% $3.96B $3.06B -$3.50B -$393.74M $3.13B $2.78B
3 0.41% $3.97B $3.07B -$3.37B -$395.36M $3.29B $2.70B
4 1.46% $4.03B $3.12B -$3.27B -$401.12M $3.48B $2.65B
5 2.50% $4.13B $3.20B -$3.20B -$411.15M $3.72B $2.61B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.97
Cost of equity 10.06%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.22%
WACC 8.17%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $67.28B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.90x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 76.92%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $13.63B
Present value of terminal value $45.43B
Indicated enterprise value $59.06B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $59.06B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $20.29B
Add: cash and equivalents $5.49B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $44.26B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 455,600,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $152.10
DCF indicative value per share $97.15
Indicative value vs. market price -36.13%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:50:45.835419 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-01-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 8.22% 30.72%
Adjusted R² 0.15 0.22
Annualised residual volatility 28.72% 27.25%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.50 (2.95) 0.92 (4.97)
Size (SMB) 0.88 (3.84) 0.79 (3.37)
Value (HML) 0.36 (1.84) -0.18 (-0.79)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.59 (3.02)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.03 (3.04)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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