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TYL — Tyler Technologies

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 17.04%
Profit Margins 13.26%
Return on Equity 8.93%
Return on Assets 4.68%
Free Float 0.04B
Short Int % Utilisation 7.46%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 8.6%
Free Cash Flow 0.54B
EBITDA 27.44 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 12.47B
EV/Revenue 5.24
EV/EBITDA 27.44

Revenue growth of 8.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -37.95%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 39.99%
1-Year Price Return* -42.55%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $328.64
52-Week Range $270.71 – $578.19
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $2.33B $2.14B
Net income Reported net income $315.60M $263.03M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $5.64B $5.18B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $3.70B $3.39B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 13.53% 12.30%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4136x 0.4127x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.5229x 1.5287x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 8.52% 7.76%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $2.33B
Prior annual revenue $2.14B
EBIT $395.31M
Tax rate 19.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $319.81M
Forecast start-growth basis 9.10%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $319.81M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $147.86M
Less: capital expenditure -$32.79M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$19.77M
Current unlevered FCFF $415.11M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 9.10% $348.91M $161.32M -$35.78M -$21.57M $452.88M $434.22M
2 7.45% $374.90M $173.34M -$72.17M -$23.18M $452.90M $399.18M
3 5.80% $396.65M $183.39M -$112.03M -$24.52M $443.49M $359.33M
4 4.15% $413.11M $191.00M -$153.84M -$25.54M $424.73M $316.35M
5 2.50% $423.44M $195.78M -$195.78M -$26.18M $397.26M $272.00M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.81
Cost of equity 9.16%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.78%
WACC 8.78%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $6.48B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.01x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 70.49%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.78B
Present value of terminal value $4.26B
Indicated enterprise value $6.04B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $6.04B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $642.61M
Add: cash and equivalents $1.10B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $6.49B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 43,812,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $336.88
DCF indicative value per share $148.16
Indicative value vs. market price -56.02%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:52:15.737202 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -49.25% -42.54%
Adjusted R² 0.02 0.04
Annualised residual volatility 37.95% 37.39%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.09 (-0.40) 0.19 (0.76)
Size (SMB) 0.68 (2.26) 0.57 (1.79)
Value (HML) -0.54 (-2.06) -0.96 (-3.04)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.33 (1.24)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.87 (1.88)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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