US Equities Analysis

UAL — United Airlines Holdings

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 4.35%
Profit Margins 6.06%
Return on Equity 25.73%
Return on Assets 4.14%
Free Float 0.32B
Short Int % Utilisation 4.53%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 10.6%
Free Cash Flow 1.65B
EBITDA 6.36 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 50.16B
EV/Revenue 0.83
EV/EBITDA 6.36

Revenue growth of 10.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 39.18%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 47.73%
1-Year Price Return* 24.19%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $125.34
52-Week Range $84.64 – $138.77
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $59.07B
Prior annual revenue $57.06B
EBIT $5.47B
Tax rate 22.13%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $4.26B
Forecast start-growth basis 3.52%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $4.26B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.94B
Less: capital expenditure -$5.87B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $1.19B
Current unlevered FCFF $2.52B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 3.52% $4.41B $3.04B -$6.08B $1.23B $2.61B $2.51B
2 3.26% $4.56B $3.14B -$5.49B $1.27B $3.47B $3.10B
3 3.01% $4.69B $3.24B -$4.85B $1.31B $4.39B $3.63B
4 2.75% $4.82B $3.33B -$4.16B $1.35B $5.34B $4.10B
5 2.50% $4.94B $3.41B -$3.41B $1.38B $6.32B $4.51B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.29
Cost of equity 11.82%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.61%
WACC 7.81%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $121.97B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 12.50x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.42%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $17.86B
Present value of terminal value $83.74B
Indicated enterprise value $101.59B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $101.59B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $31.04B
Add: cash and equivalents $12.24B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $82.80B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 328,500,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $119.44
DCF indicative value per share $252.04
Indicative value vs. market price 111.01%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:52:19.178317 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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