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US Equities · Finance research note

ULTA — Ulta Beauty

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 14.17%
Profit Margins 9.35%
Return on Equity 47.45%
Return on Assets 15.33%
Free Float 0.04B
Short Int % Utilisation 5.48%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 11.1%
Free Cash Flow 0.97B
EBITDA 11.81 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 22.32B
EV/Revenue 1.76
EV/EBITDA 11.81

Revenue growth of 11.1% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 4.34%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 35.31%
1-Year Price Return* -1.97%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $510.75
52-Week Range $443.60 – $714.97
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $12.39B $11.30B
Net income Reported net income $1.15B $1.20B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $7.00B $6.00B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $2.80B $2.49B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 9.31% 10.63%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.7706x 1.8821x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.4967x 2.4119x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 41.14% 48.27%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $12.39B
Prior annual revenue $11.30B
EBIT $1.55B
Tax rate 24.50%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.17B
Forecast start-growth basis 9.71%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.17B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $300.77M
Less: capital expenditure -$434.83M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$351.80M
Current unlevered FCFF $683.50M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 9.71% $1.28B $329.99M -$477.06M -$385.97M $749.89M $718.00M
2 7.91% $1.38B $356.09M -$475.12M -$416.49M $848.88M $745.12M
3 6.11% $1.47B $377.83M -$462.03M -$441.93M $942.82M $758.68M
4 4.30% $1.53B $394.09M -$438.00M -$460.95M $1.03B $757.84M
5 2.50% $1.57B $403.94M -$403.94M -$472.47M $1.10B $742.56M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.85
Cost of equity 9.40%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 9.08%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $17.10B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.88x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 74.84%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.72B
Present value of terminal value $11.07B
Indicated enterprise value $14.80B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $14.80B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.18B
Add: cash and equivalents $494.24M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $13.11B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 44,991,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $522.00
DCF indicative value per share $291.34
Indicative value vs. market price -44.19%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:52:41.105917 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-01-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -24.91% -21.54%
Adjusted R² 0.08 0.08
Annualised residual volatility 34.26% 34.07%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.45 (2.23) 0.56 (2.44)
Size (SMB) 0.82 (3.01) 0.70 (2.39)
Value (HML) 0.06 (0.27) -0.20 (-0.69)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.03 (0.13)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.63 (1.49)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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