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US Equities · Finance research note

UPS — United Parcel Service

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.33%
Profit Margins 5.94%
Return on Equity 33.35%
Return on Assets 7.19%
Free Float 0.75B
Dividend Yield 6.00%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.31%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -1.6%
Free Cash Flow 4.63B
EBITDA 9.35 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 110.66B
EV/Revenue 1.25
EV/EBITDA 9.35

Revenue growth of -1.6% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 32.09%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 29.45%
1-Year Price Return* 26.23%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $104.50
52-Week Range $82.00 – $122.41
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $88.66B $91.07B
Net income Reported net income $5.57B $5.78B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $73.09B $70.07B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $16.23B $16.72B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 6.28% 6.35%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.2130x 1.2997x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 4.5042x 4.1913x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 34.34% 34.59%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $88.66B
Prior annual revenue $91.07B
EBIT $8.18B
Tax rate 22.20%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $6.36B
Forecast start-growth basis -2.65%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $6.36B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $3.75B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.69B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$997.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $5.43B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -2.65% $6.20B $3.65B -$3.59B -$970.63M $5.29B $5.07B
2 -1.36% $6.11B $3.60B -$3.55B -$957.44M $5.20B $4.60B
3 -0.07% $6.11B $3.59B -$3.57B -$956.74M $5.18B $4.22B
4 1.21% $6.18B $3.64B -$3.62B -$968.35M $5.23B $3.92B
5 2.50% $6.34B $3.73B -$3.73B -$992.56M $5.34B $3.69B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.04
Cost of equity 10.42%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.75%
WACC 8.56%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $90.41B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.61x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 73.61%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $21.50B
Present value of terminal value $59.97B
Indicated enterprise value $81.47B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $81.47B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $28.59B
Add: cash and equivalents $5.89B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $28.00M
Indicated common equity value $58.74B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 850,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $101.78
DCF indicative value per share $69.10
Indicative value vs. market price -32.11%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:52:52.727115 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 0.83% 11.23%
Adjusted R² 0.22 0.26
Annualised residual volatility 25.36% 24.56%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.94 (6.30) 1.18 (7.07)
Size (SMB) 0.38 (1.89) 0.22 (1.03)
Value (HML) 0.65 (3.73) 0.20 (0.97)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.18 (1.02)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.00 (3.29)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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