US Equities Analysis

VLO — Valero Energy

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.05%
Profit Margins 3.57%
Return on Equity 15.85%
Return on Assets 6.49%
Free Float 0.3B
Dividend Yield 1.88%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.6%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 6.6%
Free Cash Flow 4.79B
EBITDA 9.28 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 85.43B
EV/Revenue 0.72
EV/EBITDA 9.28

Revenue growth of 6.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 174.13%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 36.22%
1-Year Price Return* 155.05%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $341.67
52-Week Range $135.01 – $346.09
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $122.69B
Prior annual revenue $129.88B
EBIT $3.56B
Tax rate 25.30%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.66B
Forecast start-growth basis -5.54%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.66B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $3.16B
Less: capital expenditure -$796.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$499.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $4.52B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -5.54% $2.51B $2.98B -$751.91M -$471.36M $4.27B $4.12B
2 -3.53% $2.42B $2.88B -$1.26B -$454.73M $3.58B $3.22B
3 -1.52% $2.39B $2.83B -$1.77B -$447.82M $3.00B $2.51B
4 0.49% $2.40B $2.85B -$2.32B -$450.01M $2.48B $1.94B
5 2.50% $2.46B $2.92B -$2.92B -$461.26M $2.00B $1.45B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.55
Cost of equity 7.76%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.78%
WACC 7.32%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $42.46B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.84x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 69.23%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $13.25B
Present value of terminal value $29.82B
Indicated enterprise value $43.07B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $43.07B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $11.70B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.69B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $2.88B
Indicated common equity value $33.18B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 309,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $348.95
DCF indicative value per share $107.37
Indicative value vs. market price -69.23%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:53:13.136209 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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