US Equities Analysis

VST — Vistra Corp.

VST Price Chart FCF Yield Dividend Yield Price / Earnings Price / Book EV / EBITDA EV / NOPAT Consensus EPS Broker Sentiment EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin ROIC & ROE Capital Turnover Capex & WC / Sales Net Debt / Equity Price and 100d MA Relative to Index Relative to MSCI


1. Industry Fundamentals

1.1 Cyclicality

The company operates in a cyclical industry sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Revenue and earnings tend to correlate with broader economic cycles, with periods of expansion driving growth and contractions creating headwinds. Current market capitalisation: 46.71B.

1.2 Competition

The industry is moderately competitive with established players and meaningful barriers to entry. Beta of 1.41 suggests moderate market sensitivity. Competitive advantages stem from brand, scale, or regulatory moats.

1.3 Technology

Key technology drivers include digital transformation, operational efficiency, automation. Companies that invest in R&D and adopt new technologies tend to gain market share. The pace of technological change creates both opportunities for innovation and risks of disruption.


2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 26.58%
Profit Margins 11.53%
Return on Equity 42.9%
Return on Assets 6.02%
Free Float 0.31B
Dividend Yield 0.56%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.39%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 43.4%
Free Cash Flow 0.48B
EBITDA 10.08 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 68.47B
EV/Revenue 3.52
EV/EBITDA 10.08

Revenue growth of 43.4% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 53.99%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 47.94%
Sharpe Ratio (rf=4.5%) 1.03
Beta 1.41

2.5 Valuation

Metric Value
P/E (Forward) 12.64
Price/Book 20.95
EV/Revenue 3.52
EV/EBITDA 10.08
Enterprise Value / NOPAT 14.26
FCF Yield (%) 0.87%
Price / Earnings 27.16
Price / Book 20.95
Enterprise Value / EBITDA 11.27

Forward P/E of 13x is within a reasonable range for the company’s peer group.

2.6 Return Outlook

The stock’s historical risk-return profile shows an annualised expected return of 54.0% with annualised volatility of 47.9%, yielding a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 (rf=4.5%). The risk-adjusted return is attractive relative to the risk-free rate. With a beta of 1.4, the stock moves broadly in line with the market.


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