Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to US Equities

US Equities · Finance research note

VST — Vistra Corp.

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse US Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 26.58%
Profit Margins 11.53%
Return on Equity 42.9%
Return on Assets 6.02%
Free Float 0.31B
Dividend Yield 0.56%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.39%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 43.4%
Free Cash Flow 0.48B
EBITDA 10.08 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 68.47B
EV/Revenue 3.52
EV/EBITDA 10.08

Revenue growth of 43.4% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -14.86%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 49.46%
1-Year Price Return* -24.54%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $148.13
52-Week Range $132.66 – $219.82
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $17.74B $17.22B
Net income Reported net income $752.00M $2.47B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $41.55B $37.77B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $5.10B $5.57B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 4.24% 14.32%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4269x 0.4560x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 8.1519x 6.7810x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 14.75% 44.29%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.74B
Prior annual revenue $17.22B
EBIT $2.10B
Tax rate 15.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.77B
Forecast start-growth basis 2.98%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.77B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.95B
Less: capital expenditure -$2.75B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.09B
Current unlevered FCFF $880.30M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 2.98% $1.82B $3.04B -$2.83B -$1.12B $906.58M $863.63M
2 2.86% $1.88B $3.13B -$2.97B -$1.15B $880.10M $760.86M
3 2.74% $1.93B $3.21B -$3.10B -$1.18B $850.35M $667.15M
4 2.62% $1.98B $3.29B -$3.24B -$1.22B $817.36M $581.95M
5 2.50% $2.03B $3.38B -$3.38B -$1.25B $781.12M $504.71M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.43
Cost of equity 12.59%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.29%
WACC 10.19%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $10.41B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 1.80x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 65.48%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.38B
Present value of terminal value $6.41B
Indicated enterprise value $9.79B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $9.79B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $20.07B
Add: cash and equivalents $785.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $13.00M
Indicated common equity value -$9.51B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 345,656,067.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $142.96
DCF indicative value per share -$27.52
Indicative value vs. market price -119.25%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:53:44.264592 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -29.52% -38.84%
Adjusted R² 0.17 0.18
Annualised residual volatility 45.28% 44.70%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.46 (5.47) 1.14 (3.75)
Size (SMB) 0.05 (0.14) 0.16 (0.41)
Value (HML) -0.29 (-0.95) 0.17 (0.45)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.40 (-1.25)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.93 (-1.67)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equitystockequityvstutilitieselectric-utilitiesnasdaq