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US Equities · Finance research note

WAB — Wabtec

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 18.98%
Profit Margins 10.52%
Return on Equity 11.31%
Return on Assets 6.04%
Free Float 0.17B
Dividend Yield 0.46%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.27%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 13.0%
Free Cash Flow 1.12B
EBITDA 19.83 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 49.97B
EV/Revenue 4.34
EV/EBITDA 19.83

Revenue growth of 13.0% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 26.94%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 25.89%
Sharpe Ratio (rf=4.5%) 0.87
Beta 0.94

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $11.17B $10.39B
Net income Reported net income $1.17B $1.06B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $22.07B $18.70B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $11.14B $10.09B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 10.48% 10.17%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5060x 0.5554x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.9807x 1.8533x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 10.50% 10.46%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $11.17B
Prior annual revenue $10.39B
EBIT $1.82B
Tax rate 25.69%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.35B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.51%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.35B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $457.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$260.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $7.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.55B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.51% $1.45B $491.32M -$279.52M $7.53M $1.67B $1.60B
2 6.26% $1.54B $522.06M -$353.28M $8.00M $1.72B $1.51B
3 5.00% $1.62B $548.19M -$430.03M $8.40M $1.75B $1.40B
4 3.75% $1.68B $568.76M -$507.46M $8.71M $1.75B $1.29B
5 2.50% $1.72B $582.98M -$582.98M $8.93M $1.73B $1.17B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.93
Cost of equity 9.82%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.73%
WACC 9.19%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $26.55B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.15x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 71.08%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $6.96B
Present value of terminal value $17.11B
Indicated enterprise value $24.07B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $24.07B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.54B
Add: cash and equivalents $764.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $48.00M
Indicated common equity value $19.24B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 171,100,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $294.93
DCF indicative value per share $112.47
Indicative value vs. market price -61.87%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:53:59.780916 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 7.77% 13.60%
Adjusted R² 0.42 0.43
Annualised residual volatility 18.88% 18.57%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.16 (10.45) 1.29 (10.23)
Size (SMB) 0.38 (2.56) 0.29 (1.84)
Value (HML) 0.60 (4.67) 0.36 (2.30)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.09 (0.71)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.55 (2.37)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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