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US Equities · Finance research note

WMT — Walmart

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 4.22%
Profit Margins 3.14%
Return on Equity 24.13%
Return on Assets 6.83%
Free Float 4.37B
Dividend Yield 0.86%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.8%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 7.3%
Free Cash Flow 6.86B
EBITDA 23.0 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 1031.13B
EV/Revenue 1.42
EV/EBITDA 23.0

Revenue growth of 7.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 19.63%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 24.51%
1-Year Price Return* 15.96%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $115.27
52-Week Range $95.42 – $135.16
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $713.16B $680.99B
Net income Reported net income $21.89B $19.44B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $284.67B $260.82B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $99.62B $91.01B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 3.07% 2.85%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 2.5052x 2.6109x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.8576x 2.8658x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 21.98% 21.36%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $713.16B
Prior annual revenue $680.99B
EBIT $32.27B
Tax rate 24.43%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $24.39B
Forecast start-growth basis 4.73%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $24.39B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $14.20B
Less: capital expenditure -$26.64B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $752.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $12.70B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 4.73% $25.54B $14.87B -$27.90B $787.53M $13.30B $12.81B
2 4.17% $26.60B $15.49B -$25.67B $820.37M $17.25B $15.43B
3 3.61% $27.56B $16.05B -$23.08B $850.00M $21.38B $17.76B
4 3.06% $28.41B $16.54B -$20.17B $875.98M $25.66B $19.78B
5 2.50% $29.12B $16.96B -$16.96B $897.88M $30.01B $21.48B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.60
Cost of equity 8.04%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.40%
WACC 7.72%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $589.47B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.62x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.33%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $87.25B
Present value of terminal value $406.44B
Indicated enterprise value $493.69B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $493.69B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $67.09B
Add: cash and equivalents $10.73B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $6.56B
Indicated common equity value $430.76B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 8,022,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $115.55
DCF indicative value per share $53.70
Indicative value vs. market price -53.53%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:54:40.385844 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-01-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 6.95% 21.33%
Adjusted R² 0.01 0.06
Annualised residual volatility 24.44% 23.77%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.00 (-0.02) 0.27 (1.67)
Size (SMB) 0.21 (1.10) 0.21 (1.03)
Value (HML) 0.26 (1.54) -0.03 (-0.15)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.45 (2.66)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.47 (1.60)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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