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WYNN — Wynn Resorts

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 15.32%
Profit Margins 5.14%
Return on Assets 5.6%
Free Float 0.07B
Dividend Yield 1.00%
Short Int % Utilisation 9.49%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 9.2%
Free Cash Flow 0.36B
EBITDA 11.59 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 20.4B
EV/Revenue 2.8
EV/EBITDA 11.59

Revenue growth of 9.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 0.45%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 34.28%
1-Year Price Return* -5.23%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $102.53
52-Week Range $92.52 – $134.72
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $7.14B $7.13B
Net income Reported net income $327.33M $501.08M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $13.11B $12.98B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $-275.49M $-224.16M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 4.59% 7.03%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5445x 0.5492x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -47.5808x -57.8957x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -118.82% -223.53%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $7.14B
Prior annual revenue $7.13B
EBIT $1.14B
Tax rate 20.40%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $907.20M
Forecast start-growth basis 0.14%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $907.20M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $620.63M
Less: capital expenditure -$660.89M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$38.78M
Current unlevered FCFF $828.16M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 0.14% $908.47M $621.50M -$661.81M -$38.83M $829.32M $801.97M
2 0.73% $915.10M $626.04M -$656.49M -$39.12M $845.53M $764.59M
3 1.32% $927.17M $634.30M -$654.87M -$39.63M $866.97M $733.13M
4 1.91% $944.88M $646.41M -$656.90M -$40.39M $894.01M $706.95M
5 2.50% $968.51M $662.57M -$662.57M -$41.40M $927.11M $685.56M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.00
Cost of equity 10.24%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.14%
WACC 6.94%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $21.41B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 11.40x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.57%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.69B
Present value of terminal value $15.31B
Indicated enterprise value $19.01B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $19.01B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $12.18B
Add: cash and equivalents $2.07B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests -$755.79M
Indicated common equity value $9.65B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 104,243,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $101.93
DCF indicative value per share $92.57
Indicative value vs. market price -9.17%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:55:05.543311 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -33.21% -27.95%
Adjusted R² 0.19 0.19
Annualised residual volatility 32.02% 31.80%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.09 (5.79) 1.26 (5.85)
Size (SMB) 0.48 (1.88) 0.43 (1.57)
Value (HML) 0.52 (2.38) 0.28 (1.05)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.22 (0.97)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.47 (1.19)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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